Accuracy of census could be at risk because of delays, lack of testing

The Census Bureau remains behind schedule for the 2010 census and the delays are putting the accuracy of the count at risk, officials from the Government Accountability Office said on Thursday.

"There are two great risks: time is running out and the lack of testing of key operations," said Robert Goldenkoff, director of strategic issues for GAO, before the House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census and National Archives. "There's no time for missteps, no slack in the schedule. If glitches emerge, there's not a whole lot of time to figure out the workaround."

In April 2008, then-Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez announced that technology problems caused the bureau to scrap its plans to use handheld computers for the door-to-door count of homes that do not return their census forms. The resulting switch back to paper forms has caused delays and increased the cost of the 2010 count to as much as $15 billion, according to the testimony of the bureau's acting director, Thomas Mesenbourg.

Dave Powner, director of information technology management issues at GAO, said the census would be completed on time regardless of circumstances, but the real risks involve its accuracy and cost.

"Accuracy of the 2010 count depends in large part on the proper functioning of IT systems," Powner said. "I would like to stress the need to prioritize, since it's likely the Census Bureau won't have enough time to test everything.

Mesenbourg, who said the bureau was well on its way to a successful census, acknowledged that time constraints have hampered its ability to completely test its systems. "To be honest we will probably not have end-to-end testing of all our operations," he said in response to questioning.

Mesenbourg said the Census Bureau will focus instead on testing programs that are new, rather than activities that they have accomplished successfully before.

But Powner took issue with that approach.

"I don't agree. If you have old things that are critical and you have new hardware and software, you need to test that," he said. Powner repeatedly encouraged the bureau to prioritize the testing as soon as possible to ensure the most critical systems are examined.

Powner also said the bureau lacked the IT expertise necessary to ensure a smooth 2010 count.

"Census needs more IT talent on board, clearly," he said. "Look at what happened last summer with the IT problems. They hired some people at executive levels, but they need more IT talent internal to the bureau."

GAO's Goldenkoff also said the lack of a full dress rehearsal for the 2010 census means the bureau will not have a comprehensive picture of how its systems and procedures will function once the count officially gets under way.

"In some respects, the Census Bureau is flying blind," he said.