A 1.6 Percent Pay Boost in 2012?

If history is a guide, federal employees will be in line for an average pay increase of 1.6 percent in 2012, based on figures released Friday by the Labor Department.

From September 2009 to September 2010, the change in the Employment Cost Index was 1.6 percent, a figure President Obama could use as a basis for his pay raise recommendation when he releases his 2012 budget proposal in February.

Under a 2004 law, military salaries must be increased annually at a rate equal to the change in the ECI for the private sector's wages. And while past presidents have often ensured that federal employees receive pay raises equal to those given to their military counterparts, it's unclear whether Obama will ensure pay parity in his 2012 budget proposal. While his 2011 budget blueprint proposed equal raises for both groups, his 2010 proposal called for a 2 percent raise for civilians and a 2.9 percent raise for military members.

In addition, given the upcoming midterm elections on Nov. 2, it's unclear how the House and Senate would look at federal employee pay in the 2012 appropriations bills next year. If Republicans take over the House and/or the Senate, for example, the federal employee pay raise could be on the chopping block. This year, House Republicans proposed freezing federal raises as a way to save money and trim the budget deficit.

Either way, keep the 1.6 percent figure in mind as you think about next year's debate on federal civilian and military pay.