The Senate Is About to Decide the Future of NSA Spying

Will Mitch McConnell be moved?

That's the question the Senate is asking itself as it enters its last legislative week before key provisions that authorize some of the government's sweeping domestic surveillance powers are due to lapse at the end of the month.

And if Sunday is any indication, the answer is clear: No, not a chance.

"This has been a very important part of our effort to defend the homeland since 9/11," McConnell said on ABC's This Week. "We know that the terrorists overseas are trying to recruit people in our country, to commit atrocities in our country. You saw a great example of just what I'm talking about in the Boston Marathon massacre. I don't want us to go dark, in effect."

The Senate majority leader hasn't flinched from his position that a full reauthorization of the Patriot Act's three expiring spy provisions—including Section 215, the legal edifice the National Security Agency uses to justify its bulk collection of U.S. call data—is necessary to keep Americans safe and thwart terrorist plots.

McConnell's intransigence has been unbowed despite an apparent groundswell of support over the past month in favor of NSA reform. Earlier this month, a federal appeals court ruled the phone dragnet illegal, casting doubt about whether a straight reauthorization would be feasible. And last week, the House overwhelmingly passed the White House-backed USA Freedom Act, a package bill that would effectively end the phone-records dragnet and usher in surveillance oversight and transparency reforms.

The 338-88 House vote was even more lopsided than many of the bill's supporters anticipated, and a great majority of the "no" votes came not from lawmakers wanting to preserve the status quo but from those believing the measure did not go far enough.

"The Republican leader is isolated in his desire for a clean extension of illegal spying programs," Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said last week.

McConnell continues to dig in, however, though he did open the door slightly to a compromise late last week when he filed fast-track legislation that would extend the Patriot Act provisions for only two months instead of his original push for a reauthorization of five and a half years. McConnell also used the fast-track rule to file the Freedom Act, meaning three base bills are now before the Senate for potential consideration.

McConnell's strategy, observers say, is familiar: Run out the clock until lawmakers sympathetic to reining in the post-9/11 surveillance muscle of the Patriot Act buckle under fears that a complete expiration could jeopardize national security.

But the leaks of Edward Snowden that began nearly two years ago—which included the exposure of the phone-records program—have changed the climate in Congress. Several senators, in addition to House leaders, have stated that they have no interest in an extension of any length to the Patriot Act's spy programs that don't include substantial reform. And both Sen. Rand Paul and Sen. Ron Wyden have said they will filibuster any "clean" reauthorization attempt.

Paul reiterated Sunday his stern opposition to both a clean reauthorization and the Freedom Act—which he says doesn't go far enough in its reforms.

"The court has ruled that the bulk collection of all of our phone records all of the time is illegal, so it really it ought to stop," Paul told NBC's Meet the Press host Chuck Todd. "I don't want to replace it with another system; I really think we could get along with the Constitution just fine."

Time is running out for McConnell, who seems uninterested in keeping the Senate in town during its scheduled Memorial Day recess that begins after this week. The Senate is slated to deal with finalizing a trade pact during the earlier part of this week after negotiations were drawn out due to liberal opposition to the deal. Aides close to surveillance reform provisions expect the Senate will not turn fully to NSA reform until it settles the trade deal, which may not happen until Wednesday.

Paul's filibuster vow has added heft due to the tight time crunch, as House leadership has signaled it will not wait around this week for the Senate to get its act together on surveillance reform. If Paul can delay procedural progress until late Thursday, when the House is set to recess, the Senate may be forced to either pass the Freedom Act as is or allow the spying provisions to expire outright.

Still, no easy solution is in sight. Sen. Mike Lee, one of the Senate authors of the Freedom Act and one of its five Republican cosponsors, said he is skeptical the legislation currently has the filibuster-proof 60 votes needed to advance.

"I can't tell you that we have 60 votes right now," Lee said Friday on C-SPAN's Newsmakers. "In fact, I can't count to 60 right now."

Lee added that "some variation" of the bill could cobble together 60, noting potential changes that would lengthen the transition from the current bulk collection regime to the new protocol. But with time so short and the House packing its bags, it may be too late for changes to the Freedom Act in the Senate, especially if filibusters drag out the process.

McConnell, who has endorsed fellow Kentuckian Paul for president, seems to banking on the uncertainty to force a short-term extension through, however.

"What I would rather see … is a couple of month extension of the existing program so we can get reassurance that the new bill that passed the House can actually work," McConnell said.

As for Paul's filibuster?

"Rand Paul and I agree on most things, we don't agree on this," McConnell said. "He doesn't like the House-passed bill, either."

He added: "Everybody threatens to filibuster, we'll see what happens."