Computer Model Predicts Outcomes of Wars

A professor at the University of Georgia has developed a computer model that, she claims, accurately predicts the outcome of wars 80 percent of the time. “If you know some key variables â€" like the major objective, the nature of the target, whether there’s going to be another strong state that will intervene on the side of the target and whether you’ll have an ally â€" you can get a sense of your probability of victory,” said Patricia Sullivan, an assistant professor in the School of Public and International Affairs, in a press release issued this week by the University of Georgia.

Sullivan, whose article appears in the June issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution (access to the article requires payment), studied 122 post-World War II conflicts to build the model. When applied to past wars, the model predicts a 93 percent chance of success for the first Gulf War, but only a 26 percent chance of success for the current Iraq War if the war is waged over a 10 year period.

The reason, according to the press release:

Driving Saddam Hussein’s army out of Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War and overthrowing his government in 2003 was a brute force objective that was accomplished relatively quickly, for example, but quelling sectarian violence and building support for the current government has been much more difficult because it requires target compliance.

“We can try to use brute force to kill insurgents and terrorists, but what we really need is for the population to be supportive of the government and to stop supporting the insurgents,” Sullivan said. “Otherwise, every time we kill an insurgent or a terrorist, they’re going to be replaced by others.”

Hat tip: Slashdot