A Boring Outlook for IT Spending

Does it seem like agencies just aren’t coming up with any groundbreaking, innovative technology projects lately? If you think so, you just may be on to something.

Forrester Research released its federal government spending forecast for 2008 (including some insights into what 2009 may be like), as Nextgov reported, and it concludes that any new spending will go to consolidate information technology infrastructure and replace or upgrade servers and applications systems. And for more storage. This is real mundane stuff. Important to build new programs on, for sure, but still ho hum.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and any IT needs there, are sucking up almost all new spending, Forrester reports. During the Bush administration, IT spending has ranged between 1 percent and 7 percent, with the larger increases coming after 9/11 to build IT systems to fight terrorism â€" many of them controversial for compromising Americans’ privacy. President Bush asked for a 4 percent increase in IT spending for fiscal 2009. But a lot of that will go to support IT on the battlefield and to support health care for veterans. The rest will just keep the lights on, Forrester concludes.

Even a new administration, which Forrester predicts will focus on domestic IT spending, won’t bring bold thinking in 2010. Forrester predicts: “The new administration … will likely include priorities around reducing costs and improving efficiency.” Sounds like more consolidation.

There’s always 2011.