Risk Lessons from the Ash Cloud

Managing risk is the job of government, and arguably the central mission of any agency, as Robert Charette wrote in a Government Executive March 2009 feature.

But it's tough. Just consider what European governments had to go through in deciding when it was safe to allow airlines to take to the fly , as discussed in a blog item that risk-expert Robert Charette. Managing risk starts with having the right data to put in computer models. Citing a Financial Times article, he wrote:

The FT says that the models used were "based on incomplete science and limited data, according to European officials. As a result, they may have over-stated the risks to the public, needlessly grounding flights and damaging businesses."

The FT story also says that the models lacked basic information, such as "what concentration of ash was hazardous for jet engines, or at what rate ash fell from the sky."

That conclusion reinforces Charette's thesis in his GE article:

Americans want life to be less risky. But the problem is government isn't being managed to reduce risks. . . . Agencies don't mention the word risk, and if they do it's in a mish-mash of incoherent policies and misplaced budgets.

Maybe agencies can learn some lessons from what inevitably will be a European review of how the risk of flying while the ash hung in the air was determined.