Survey: Cloud computing to make huge strides by 2020

Mobile computing will outpace desktop technology in the next 10 years if challenges to access, security and interoperability are overcome, according to a study from the Pew Research Center's Internet and American Life Project released on Friday.

The report, a survey of nearly 900 Internet and technology experts, found that 72 percent of respondents believed technology users will conduct business using shared mobile platforms and smart phone applications rather than desktop computing. Easy access to information and the growing use of mobile devices will be key drivers of this trend, they said.

"By 2020, the norm will be pocket, powerful computer devices that are networks and utilizing data and applications from the cloud," said Robert Cannon, senior counsel for Internet law at the Federal Communications Commission. "The benefit of a general-purpose PC will increasingly beg the cost."

Despite the enthusiasm for cloud computing's potential, respondents also said desktops will evolve with smart phones and remain part of technology networks. They added the shift to the cloud will depend on users' location, access to technology and computing needs.

"It's obvious that people are enthusiastically embracing the ideal of ambient intelligence -- being able to share and access data and create things anywhere, anytime," said Janna Anderson, an associate professor at Elon University's School of Communications and the report's author. She added the shift won't happen, however, unless obstacles such as security, limited broadband spectrum and privacy are overcome.

The Web-based survey, conducted in conjunction with Elon's Imagining the Internet Center, is the fourth in a series of five reports to be released this year. Respondents included individuals affiliated with the Defense, Health and Human Services, and State departments; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and the General Services and Social Security administrations.