Russian influence operations ‘preeminent threat’ to November election, officials warn
Then-President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, on July 16, 2018. A recent assessment by the U.S. intelligence community names Russia as the "preeminent threat" to election in in the runup to the 2024 vote. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
Moscow appears to continue favoring Donald Trump, while other nations will aim to sow divisional chaos online or sway broader geopolitical discussions.
In the months leading into this November’s presidential election, Russian influence operatives have already begun targeting specific voter demographics, promoting divisive narratives and denigrating specific politicians in an effort to undermine the integrity of the election process and sow further domestic divisions, intelligence officials say.
It means Moscow is now seen as the “preeminent threat” to U.S. election security in 2024, an official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters Tuesday in a briefing that included staff from the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Former president Donald Trump — returning as the expected Republican presidential candidate — was not explicitly named by officials, but they noted that Russia has not changed its stances since its past 2016 and 2020 election interference attempts.
“We have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the U.S. is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia,” the official said.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has become a flash point among some GOP lawmakers who have used the Biden administration’s hefty financial support for Ukrainian armaments and equipment as leverage to bash what they call neglectful White House border policies.
Ukrainian ties to the Trump administration were also muddled in the lead-up to the first impeachment of the former president after he withheld congressionally authorized military aid to Ukraine in an attempt to coerce the country into handing over politically damaging information about President Joe Biden in the months prior to the 2020 presidential election.
Russian spin doctors plan to covertly use social media to amplify narratives that could sway Americans’ public opinion in election swing states and diminish U.S. support for Ukraine, ODNI officials said. Pro-Russian messaging and influence attempts have also been made through encrypted direct messaging channels, they added.
Both China and Iran are also viewed as threats, though officials said China may not be seeking to influence this coming presidential election directly because both Democratic and Republican party leaders run on platforms critical of Beijing.
Iran will serve as a “chaos agent” in the election space, and has “demonstrated a long-standing interest in exploiting U.S. political and social tensions” that have since accelerated since Israel declared war on Hamas in October, the ODNI official said. Just Tuesday, ODNI director Avril Haines said an Iran-backed influence campaign is taking advantage of U.S. protests over Israel’s war in Gaza.
Russia and China are the top adversaries using AI tools to carry out their missions, the ODNI official said, with the caveat that China is turning to AI more for broad exploration of U.S. political themes that can be used to Beijing’s advantage later.